Ingxelo yamva nje yeWood Mackenzie ijonga iindlela kunye nemingeni kwimarike yelanga yase-US ekhulayo, kubandakanywa ukuveliswa okukhuthazwa nguMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo wase-US.
Ivela kwimagazini ye-pv yase-USA
UMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo wase-US ka-2022 uqulathe i-370 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwinkcitho yokuvuselela amandla kunye nemilinganiselo yemozulu.Lo mthetho uyilwayo ubandakanya ngaphezulu kwe-60 yeebhiliyoni zeedolaimveliso yasekhayakulo lonke ikhonkco lonikezelo lwamandla acocekileyo.Eli nqanaba lembali lotyalo-mali lingundoqo ekufezekiseni ukuzimela kwemveliso yaseMelika kunye nokhuseleko lwamandla acocekileyo.
Ingxelo yamva nje evela kuWood Mackenzie ibonisa ukuba abaphuhlisi, iinkampani zokuthengwa kwempahla yobunjineli (EPCs) kunye nabavelisi baya kukhangela isikhokelo kwiSebe lezeMali lase-US kunye ne-IRS ukuze kucace ukuze kucwangciswe uphuhliso olutsha lwelanga kunye notyalo-mali kumaziko amatsha okuvelisa. ngaphakathi eUnited States.
Ingxelo ijonga intsingiselo kweli shishini elikhulayo, kubandakanywa ingqwalasela kwiimodyuli ze-TOPCon phezu kwe-heterojunction (HJT), ukukhula kwimarike ye-inverter yokuhlala yehlabathi, ukwandiswa kokuveliswa kwe-tracker, ukwehla okulindelekileyo kwiindleko zeprojekthi yelanga kunye nokujonga imingeni eya phambili. .
I-TOPcon vs. PERC
I-TOPCon, emele i-tunnel oxide passivated contacts, ilindeleke ukuba ikhuphe i-heterojunction (HJT), kwaye ingxelo ye-Wood Mackenzie iphawula ukuba i-mono PERC "iteknoloji elinganisa ukukhula kunye nokusebenza kakuhle", ebonisa ukuba i-TOPCon inokukhula okuphezulu ngenxa yenkqubo. uphuculo kunye nokuphucula iindleko.
"I-PERCiteknoloji yephaneliUkwanalo negophe lokufunda elikhawulezayo kwaye ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwabo luya kuxhomekeka ekubeni yeyiphi na eya kukwazi ukwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle kwayo okanye ukunciphisa iindleko ngokukhawuleza kunomnye,” uStefan Gunz, intloko yophando lwephotovoltaics kwiFraunhofer Institute yaseJamani yeSolar Energy Systems. (ISE), uxelelepv imagazinikunyaka ophelileyo.
Abahlalutyi be-Wood Mackenzie baqikelela ukuba iimodyuli ze-TOPCon zifikelele kwi-25% yokusebenza kakuhle kwimveliso yobuninzi kwaye zinokunyuka ukuya kwi-28.7%
Ukuphuculwa kokwenziwa kwemveliso ukusuka kwimveliso ye-mono PERC ukuya kwi-TOPCon lutyalo-mali olulula nolunexabiso eliphantsi, kwaye abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuba ukusebenza kakuhle kwelebhu ye-27% kunokufezekiswa ngokuphuculwa kwe-metallization kunye nee-wafers ezibhityileyo.I-Wood Mackenzie iphawula ukuba abanye abavelisi balindele ukuba ubukhulu be-wafer ubukhulu beemodyuli ze-TOPCon zefomati enkulu ziyancipha nge-20 μm kulo nyaka ukuya kwi-120 μm, eya kuqhuba uninzi lokunciphisa ixabiso ngo-2023.
UMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo uvuselela ukuveliswa kweemodyuli zase-US ngenxa yeebhiliyoni ezingama-30 zeerandi kwiikhredithi zerhafu yemveliso kunye nekhredithi yerhafu yotyalo-mali eyi-$10 yebhiliyoni yokwakha amaziko okwenziwa kobugcisa obucocekileyo.UWood Mackenzie ulindele i-USumthamo wokuvelisa imodyuliukodlula i-15 GW ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
Umbuzo omkhulu, nangona kunjalo, inkcazo "yezixhobo ezenziwe ekhaya", nokuba kuthetha ukuba iimodyuli zihlangene e-United States, okanye ukuba zonke iinqununu zenziwe e-US.Umceli mngeni wabenzi beemodyuli kukuba akukho nto inqabileyo okanye imveliso yeeseli e-US, nangona oko kutshintsha ngezibhengezo zamva nje zeenkampani ezibandakanya i-Qcells kunye neCubicPV.Umahluko ekutolikweni komxholo wasekhaya "unokuchaphazela kakhulu umthamo wokuvelisa imodyuli kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo", ingxelo iyaphikisana.Abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuba phantse i-45 GWdc yezibhengezo zamandla amatsha ziya kuza kwi-Intanethi ngo-2026.
Ukukhula okulindelekileyo kwelanga e-US kuya kutyhutyha kwikhonkco lokubonelela, ukukhulisa ukukhula kwee-inverters kunye neetrackers, phakathi kwamanye amacandelo axhasayo.Ingxelo ye-Wood Mackenzie iphawula ukuba utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo wamva nje, kubandakanywa ne-EU ye-REPowerEU, ukuphunyezwa kwe-India ye-Production Linked Incentives (PLI) kunye ne-US IRA, iya kukhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kwelanga kula mazwe, ngaloo ndlela inceda amazwe afikelele kwiinjongo zabo ze-zero.
Ngokwengxelo, imarike ye-inverter yokuhlala iya kukhula kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2023. Ngophahla lwelanga olufumana umfutho, ngakumbi kumazwe afana neIndiya kunye neJamani, kuya kubakho ukonyuka okuhambelanayo kwintengiso yee-microinverters, ii-inverters zentambo kunye ne-DC optimizers, olona khetho ludumileyo lwe-inverter yofakelo lophahla.Ngokucacileyo, ii-inverters zomtya ezinamanqaku amaninzi aphezulu (MPPTs) ziya kubona ukwanda kokuxhaphaka kwemarike ngo-2023.
Abaguquli bendawo yokuhlala baya kubona ukusetyenziswa okwandisiweyo kobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kwii-algorithms zayo.I-module-level electronics electronics (MLPEs) kunye ne-single-phase string inverters, eyona nto idume kakhulu kwi-rooftop ufakelo lwe-solar, iya kubona i-11% yesabelo semarike ekuthunyelweni kwe-inverter yehlabathi ngo-2023. Ukuveliswa kwe-inverter kuya kwanda kunye nabadlali abakhulu bongeza imigca yokuvelisa kunye nabangenayo abatsha. ukujoyina imarike, kwaye ukhuphiswano olulandelayo luya kubangela ukuhla kwexabiso ukusuka kwi-2% ukuya kwi-4% ngo-2023.
Umceli mngeni oqhubekayo kubavelisi be-inverter kukunqongophala kwe-chip yehlabathi, abahlalutyi be-Wood Mackenzie balindele ukuqhubeka ngo-2023 kwaye bachitheke ukuya kwi-2024. ukuqinisekisa umgangatho, ukusebenza kakuhle kunye nobomi babo.UWood Mac uqikelela ukuba ixabiso le-inverter alizukwehla kude kube sekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
Imveliso yetraki yasekhaya iyakhula ngokukhawuleza kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi ngenxa yenkuthazo karhulumente kunye nemiba yolungiselelo efunyenwe ngexesha lobhubhani we-COVID-19.Ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi bakaWood Mackenzie, amaxabiso e-tracker aya kuhla eIndiya nase-United States.Balindele uzinzo ngakumbi ekuboneleleni ngentsimbi e-US nase-Indiya, ingakumbi ngokwandiswa kwemveliso yentsimbi ekhoyo.IYurophu, nangona kunjalo, isajongene nokungalingani kwimarike yentsimbi.Njengoko ngaphezulu kwe-60% yokwakheka kwe-tracker kuyintsimbi, oku kuphinda kubuyiswe kwimfuno yentsimbi kuya kubangela ukhuphiswano olwandisiweyo kwisabelo semarike yetracker kubathengisi, utshilo abahlalutyi bakaWood Mackenzie, beqikelela ukuba amaxabiso ka-2023 abalandeleli aya kuhla nge-5% eUnited States, eBrazil kunye. eTshayina.
Iindleko zelanga
Iindleko zenkcitho eyinkunzi ziya kuqhubeka zihla, ziqhutywa ngokuyinxenye ngokunyuka kokusetyenziswa kweemodyuli ze-TOPcon.Abahlalutyi beWood Mackenzie balindele ukuba amaxabiso e-polysilicon ehle kulo nyaka kwaye baqikelela ukuba ekhoyo300 GWUmthamo wehlabathi uya kufikelela kwi-900 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.
“Siqikelela ukuba ngaphezulu kwesigidi esi-1 seMt yokwandiswa kwepolysilicon kuya kufika kwi-Intanethi ngo-2023. Uninzi lwamandla amatsha luya kuba seTshayina.Nangona kunjalo, sikholelwa ukuba malunga ne-10% eqikelelwa ukuba ibe ngaphandle kweTshayina inokuyalela iprimiyamu yexabiso njengoko isenokungabinamaxabiso kunye nobunye umngcipheko wepolisi.
Umceli mngeni oqhubekayo kukungaqiniseki malunga neendleko zerhafu zokulwa nokulahla/ukuphikisa (AD/CVD).NgeSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US elilindeleke ukuba livakalise isigqibo salo sokugqibela ngoMeyi 2023, uWood Mackenzie uqikelela ukuba imisebenzi inokusukela kwi-16% ukuya kwi-254% ngokusekelwe kwilizwe lemvelaphi.Uzimiselo lwangaphambili, olukhutshwe ngoDisemba ka-2022, lufumene iinkampani ezikwinqanaba loku-1, njengeTrina, BYD, Vina (iyunithi yeLongi) kunye neCanadian Solar, ezithintela amaxabiso aseTshayina.Uzimiselo lokuqala lwacima uHanwha noJinko nto leyo eya kubangela isiqabu ekufumanekeni kwemodyuli ngo-2023.
EUnited States, abaphuhlisi baya kuqhubeka nokugxila kwiimfuno ze-IRA, kubandakanywa umvuzo okhoyo kunye nokongeza ibhonasi yomxholo wasekhaya kwiiprojekthi ze-utility-scale eziqala ukwakhiwa ngo-2023. Ngetyala, zonke iiprojekthi ezinkulu kune-1 MWac kufuneka ihlawule abasebenzi bayo umvuzo okhoyo kwaye iqalise inkqubo yokuqeqeshelwa umsebenzi.
EYurophu, umgaqo-nkqubo we-REPowerEU ujolise ekufakeni i-320 GW ye-PV yelanga ngo-2025 kunye ne-600 GW phantsi kwesicwangciso sayo se-EU solar energy.Ukuhlangabezana nolu sukelo lwamabhongo, kufuneka kwakhiwe indawo yokuvelisa eyomeleleyo ngaphakathi kommandla.I-European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance entsha, iya kudala isakhelo sokunceda ukukhusela imali yokuvelisa kunye nokukhuthaza uphando kunye nokutsha kwi-teknoloji yemodyuli, phakathi kobunye ubuchwepheshe be-zero-carbon.
Umceli mngeni wokugqibelaUkwenziwa kwePVeYurophu, ngokutsho Wood Mackenzie abahlalutyi, lukhuphiswano iindleko ukusuka kummandla APAC ngenxa yexabiso eliphezulu amandla, abasebenzi kunye nezinto eziphathekayo, kodwa inokuxhamla kubathengi abazimisele ukuhlawula iprimiyamu iteknoloji engcono kunye elubala kwikhonkco lokubonelela.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-29-2023