NguFinlay Colville
NgoNovemba 17, 2022
Kuya kubakho i-polysilicon eyaneleyo eveliswe ngo-2022 ukuxhasa ukwenziwa malunga ne-320GW yeemodyuli ze-c-Si.Umfanekiso: JA Solar.
Umzi-mveliso we-PV welanga uqikelele ukuvelisa i-310GW yeemodyuli ngo-2022, emele ukunyuka okumangalisayo kwe-45% ngonyaka xa kuthelekiswa no-2021, ngokutsho kophando lwamva nje olwenziwa liqela lophando lwemarike yePV Tech kwaye luchazwe kwiPV Manufacturing entsha & Ingxelo yeKota yeTekhnoloji.
Imakethi ngo-2022 yayikhokelwa yimveliso kwaye ekugqibeleni yalinganiswa sisixa sepolysilicon eveliswe unyaka wonke.Imfuno ngamanye amaxesha ibinokuthi inyuke ngama-50-100% ngaphezulu kunoko kunokuveliswa.
Kuya kubakho i-polysilicon eyaneleyo eveliswe ngo-2022 ukuxhasa ukwenziwa malunga ne-320GW yeemodyuli ze-c-Si.I-Wafer kunye ne-c-Si amanqanaba emveliso yeeseli kunokwenzeka ukuba aphele malunga ne-315GW.Ukuveliswa kweemodyuli (i-c-Si kunye nefilimu encinci) kufuneka ibe kufuphi ne-310GW, kunye nokuthunyelwa kokugqibela kweemarike kwi-297GW.Ndibeka i-± 2% yempazamo ebotshelelwe kula maxabiso ngoku, kunye neeveki ezintandathu zemveliso ezishiyekileyo unyaka.
Kwi-297GW yeemodyuli ezithunyelwe ngo-2022, isixa esibalulekileyo soku asiyi kubangela umthamo omtsha wofakelo lwePV.Oku kungenxa yezinto ezininzi;umgangatho othile, omnye omtsha.Okona kuchaziweyo ibe 'kukugcinwa' kweemodyuli kwizithethe zase-US kunye nokulibaziseka koqhagamshelo.Kodwa ngoku ngokuqinisekileyo kukho umthamo oncomekayo oya kukutshintshwa kweemodyuli okanye ukuxhotyiswa kwakhona kwezityalo.Umthamo omtsha wePV wokugqibela owongeziweyo ngo-2022 unokuphela usondele kwi-260GW nje ukuba konke oku kwaziwa ngokupheleleyo.
Ukusuka kwimbono yokuvelisa, kwakungekho nto imangalisayo.I-China ivelise i-90% ye-polysilicon, i-99% ye-wafers, i-91% yeeseli ze-c-Si kunye ne-85% yeemodyuli ze-c-Si.Kwaye ke, wonke umntu ufuna imveliso yasekhaya, ngakumbi iIndiya, i-US kunye neYurophu.Ukufuna yinto enye;ukuba nenye.
Malunga nesiqingatha sepolysilicon eyenziwe eTshayina ngo-2022 kwishishini le-PV iveliswa eXinjiang.Lo mlinganiso uya kuhla minyaka le ukuya phambili ngoku, kungekho mthamo mtsha kulindeleke ukuba ungene kwi-Intanethi kulo mmandla.
Ngokwetekhnoloji, uhlobo lwe-n lwenze ukungena okubalulekileyo, kunye ne-TOPCon ngoku i-architecture ekhethwayo yeenkokheli zentengiso, nangona amagama athile abalaseleyo anethemba lokuqhuba kuzo zombini i-heterojunction kunye nokunxibelelana ngasemva kwisikali se-GW ezininzi ngo-2023. Phantse i-20GW yeeseli ze-n-type ziqikelelwa ukuba ziveliswe kwi-2022, apho i-83% iya kuba yi-TOPCon.Abavelisi baseTshayina baqhuba inguqu ye-TOPCon;malunga ne-97% yeeseli ze-TOPCon ezenziwe ngo-2022 ziseChina.Kunyaka ozayo uya kulubona olu tshintsho, njengoko i-TOPCon iqala ukufumana indlela yayo kwicandelo elisetyenziswayo lase-US, into eya kufuna ukuba iiseli ze-TOPCon zenziwe ngaphandle kweTshayina, mhlawumbi kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, kodwa kuxhomekeke kwinto eyenzekayo ngophando oluqhubekayo anti-ukujikeleza e-US.
Ngokuphathelele ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ngo-2022, iYurophu yajika yaba ngophumeleleyo omkhulu, nangona i-100GW-plus yeemodyuli ezimangalisayo zenziwe e-China kwaye zagcinwa e-China.Ngaphandle kwe-US, zonke ezinye iimakethi eziphambili zibone ukukhula okunamandla okuphindwe kabini, ngokuhambelana nokukhanga kwe-manic yelanga esele ibambe ihlabathi kutsha nje.
IYurophu yayiphantsi kwemibandela embalwa ngo-2022 eyabangela ukukhula okumangalisayo.Lo mmandla waba yindawo yokuthunyelwa kwemithwalo yemithamo eyayingafumaneki kwimarike yase-US kwaye yachatshazelwa ngoko nangoko ziziphumo zongquzulwano eUkraine.Phantse i-67GW yeemodyuli zathunyelwa kwimarike yaseYurophu ngo-2022 - imiqulu ekungekho mntu wayeyilindele kunyaka ophelileyo.
Kunyaka wonke, ishishini le-PV liye lachatshazelwa kakhulu ligama elitsha lemilebe yomntu wonke: ukulandeleka.Ukuthenga iimodyuli zePV zelanga akuzange kube nzima kangako.
Yibeke ecaleni into yokuba amaxabiso asephezulu ngama-20-30% kuneminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, ukuba iikhontrakthi ezisayinwe kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo zinokungalifanelanga iphepha ezibhalwe kulo, okanye ngenene izihloko ezihlabayo zokuthembeka kwentsimi kunye nokuhlonipha amabango ewaranti.
Ukugqitha kuzo zonke ezi namhlanje yi-conundrum yokulandeleka.Ngubani owenza ntoni kwaye phi namhlanje, kwaye ngaphezulu kwinqanaba, baya kuyenza phi kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ihlabathi elimanyanisiweyo lizamana nalo mba ngoku kwaye kuthetha ukuthini xa uthenga imodyuli yePV.Ndibhale kakhulu kwiPV Tech kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo malunga nokuba kutheni kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuba uninzi lweenkampani ezithengisa iimodyuli azenzi nto ngaphandle 'kwepakethe' yemveliso eyenziwe zezinye iinkampani.Ngaphambili, bendicinga ukuba kubaluleke kakhulu malunga nokuzithemba kumgangatho;ngoku oku koyiswa kukulandeleka kunye nemfuno yokuphicothwa kwamakhonkco obonelelo.
Abathengi bemodyuli kufuneka bathathe ikhosi yokuwohloka kwimveliso yobonelelo lwe-dynamics ngoku, besusa iileya zemodyuli yonke indlela ebuyela kwimathiriyeli ekrwada eya kwizityalo zepolysilicon kwihlabathi jikelele.Kubuhlungu njengoko kubonakala ngathi, izibonelelo zokugqibela ziya kubaluleka, ekugqibeleni zigqithise ezo zophicotho-zincwadi lokulandeleka.
Okwangoku, ngokwemveliso yecandelo (i-polysilicon, i-wafer, iseli kunye nemodyuli) kuyanceda ukwahlula umhlaba ube ngamacandelo amathandathu: i-Xinjiang, i-China yonke, i-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia, i-Indiya, i-US, kunye nehlabathi lonke.Mhlawumbi kulo nyaka uzayo, iYurophu iza kudlala apha, kodwa ngo-2022 kuselithuba lokukhupha iYurophu (ngaphandle kwento yokuba uWacker enze ipolysilicon eJamani).
Umzobo ongezantsi uthathwe kwi-webinar endiyihambisile kwiveki ephelileyo.Ibonisa imveliso ka-2022 kuyo yonke imimandla eyahlukeneyo eboniswe ngasentla.
I-China ibilawula ukwenziwa kwezinto ze-PV ngo-2022, kugxilwe kakhulu kubungakanani bepolysilicon eveliswe eXinjiang.
Ukungena ngo-2023, kukho ukungaqiniseki okuninzi ngeli xesha, kwaye ndiza kuzama ukugubungela ezi nyanga zimbalwa zizayo kwimisitho yethu kunye neempawu zePV Tech kunye neewebinars.
Ngelixa ukulandelelwa kunye ne-ESG kuya kuhlala kuphezulu kwi-ajenda kuninzi (zombini ukuthenga kunye nokuthengisa iimodyuli), umba wexabiso lemodyuli (ASP) inokuba ngoyena ulandelela ngokusondeleyo (kwakhona!).
Imodyuli ye-ASP iye yahlala iphezulu iminyaka embalwa kuphela ngenxa yokunqwenela ngamandla elanga ebekwe yi-net zero syndrome koorhulumente, izinto eziluncedo kunye neenkampani zehlabathi (ilanga lihlala lilelona mandla avuselelekayo anomtsalane ngenxa yesantya sokuthunyelwa kunye nesiza/ ubunini bhetyebhetye).Nokuba umntu uqikelela ukuba imfuno (engachazwayo xa kuphela iqhezu labatyali-mali lifumana imveliso) ukuze kuphindwe kabini ilanga kule minyaka imbalwa izayo, ngaxa lithile i-China umthamo ogqithisileyo uya kungena ebaleni.
Ukubeka nje, ukuba ufuna into ephindwe kabini kunyaka ozayo kwaye utyalo-mali lwe-supply chain ukwenza ngokuphindwe kathathu umthamo wonyaka ophelileyo, oku kuba yimarike yomthengi kwaye ixabiso leentengiso liyehla.Ehlabathini lonke namhlanje, i-bottleneck yi-polysilicon.Ngo-2023, ezinye iimarike zinokuba nezinye iibhotile ukuba kukho iimeko zokungenisa elizweni ezibekwe kwezinye iindawo zekhonkco lexabiso (iiseli okanye iimodyuli, umzekelo).Kodwa kugxininiswa ngokubanzi kwi-polysilicon kunye nokuba ungakanani umthamo omtsha oza kuza kwi-intanethi e-China kunye nokuba oku kuya kuvelisa ntoni;umthamo kunye nemveliso zizinto ezimbini ezahlukileyo kakhulu, ngakumbi xa abadlali abatsha bangena kwindawo.
Ukuqikelela ukuveliswa kwepolysilicon ngo-2023 kunzima kakhulu namhlanje.Akunjalo kakhulu malunga nokusebenza ukuba leliphi inqanaba lesikhundla esitsha esiza 'kwakhiwa';ngakumbi malunga nokuba oku kuya kuvelisa ntoni kwaye ukuba i-polysilicon yaseTshayina 'i-cartel' iya kwenza ukulawula ukubonelela ukuze igcine iqinile.Iyavakala ukuba abavelisi baseTshayina bepolysilicon basebenze njengeklabhu, okanye inqwelo-mafutha, kwaye bacothise ulwandiso ukuba kuyimfuneko, okanye benze ugcino olwandisiweyo phakathi enyakeni ukuze bafumane uluhlu lwempahla.
Imbali isixelela okwahlukileyo nangona kunjalo.Iinkampani zaseTshayina zikholisa ukuhamba ngaphezulu xa kukho imfuno yentengiso, kwaye ngaphandle kokuba ilizwe libekwe ngokufanelekileyo ukuba lidlulise izigunyaziso kumanqanaba omthamo wecandelo, liphela likhululekile kubo bonke ngemali engapheliyo etafileni kuye nawuphi na umntu omtsha ongenayo. umnqweno weshishini.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba amaxabiso epolysilicon anokwehla, kodwa amaxabiso emodyuli ayanda.Oku kunokuba nzima ukukuthatha njengoko kuchasene nengqiqo eqhelekileyo kwishishini le-PV.Kodwa yinto enokuthi gqi ngo-2023. Ndizakuzama ukuyicacisa ngoku.
Kwimarike enemodyuli egqithisayo (njengoko ishishini le-PV lisebenza kakhulu kude kube ngu-2020), kuthanda ukuba nemodyuli esezantsi ye-ASP ehamba phambili kunye nokucudisa umlambo kwiindleko.Ngokungagqibekanga, amaxabiso epolysilicon (ucinga ukuba kukho unikezelo olungaphaya) luphantsi.Qwalasela i-US $ 10/kg emva ngemini.
Ngexesha leminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, amaxabiso emodyuli ayenyukanga ngenxa yokuba unikezelo lwepolysilicon lwaluqinile kwaye amaxabiso anyukile (ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-US$30/kg ubukhulu becala), kodwa ngenxa yokuba yayiyimarike yomthengisi wemodyuli.Ukuba ixabiso le-polysilicon ngo-2022 liye lehla ukuya kwi-US $ 10 / kg, ababoneleli bemodyuli basenokukwazi ukuthengisa imveliso kuluhlu lwe-30-40c / W.Ngekubekho umda omninzi wewafer, iiseli kunye nabavelisi bemodyuli.Awulihliseli ixabiso ukuba awufuni.
Kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezidlulileyo, ibindimangalisa into yokuba iBeijing khange (ngokupheleleyo ngasemva kwezigcawu) 'iyalele' i-polysilicon cartel e-China ukuba yehlise amaxabiso.Hayi ukunceda lonke ihlabathi xa kuthengwa iimodyuli, kodwa ukuvumela isabelo esilungileyo senzuzo kulo lonke ikhonkco lexabiso lemveliso e-China.Ndicinga nje ukuba akuzange kwenzeke ngenxa yokuba wonke umntu wase-China wakwazi ukuphumelela kwaye ugcine i-10-15% ye-gross margins - kunye ne-polysilicon ethengisa kwi-US $ 40 / kg.Esona sizathu somthetho waseBeijing siya kuba kukubonisa ilizwe langaphandle ukuba ababoneleli bayo bepolysilicon (khumbula isiqingatha sepolysilicon yaseTshayina ngo-2022 senziwe eXinjiang) bebengaxeli imida ye-70-80% ngelixa bephantsi kokukhanya okuvela kuwo wonke umbuzo weXinjiang. .
Ke ngoko, ayiphambani ukuba ngexesha lika-2023, kuya kubakho amaxesha apho amaxabiso e-polysilicon ehla kodwa amaxabiso emodyuli awachaphazeleki kwaye anokwenyuka.
Ayizizo zonke iindaba ezimbi kubathengi beemodyuli ngo-2023. Kukho imiqondiso yokuba ukugqithiswa kwe-cyclical kuya kwenzeka, ngakumbi kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023 kwaye mhlawumbi kubonakala kuqala kubathengi baseYurophu.Uninzi lwale nto luvela kwinto yokuba icandelo laseTshayina lijonge ukuthumela umthamo omkhulu ukuya eYurophu kwaye phantse ngokuqinisekileyo ngaphezu koko abaphuhlisi baseYurophu / ii-EPCs ezinokuthi zenzeke ngesaziso esifutshane.
Uninzi lwezi zihloko ziya kuba sembindini kwinkomfa ezayo ye-PV ModuleTech eMalaga, eSpain ngomhla we-29-30 kaNovemba 2022. Kusekho iindawo ezikhoyo zokuzimasa umcimbi;ulwazi oluthe vetshe kwi-hyperlink apha kunye nendlela yokubhalisa ukuze ubekho.Akuzange kubekho ixesha elingcono lokuba sibambe inkomfa yethu yokuqala ye-PV ModuleTech yaseYurophu!
Ixesha lokuposa: Nov-21-2022